12/27/2022 0 Comments Supreme ruler ultimate trainer pointer![]() ![]() Summing the top four positions into high/low gives a 25-23 verdict in favour of low, though of course the most material difference is in the win row. But the minor podium spots have been equally divided on both steps and with many/most bookies paying four places at least in the days leading up to Arc Sunday, a high draw has been no impediment to finishing on the ticket. As the little table below illustrates, those housed in the lower half of the stalls have won nine of the past dozen Longchamp Arcs: 75% of them. Perhaps not, at least not in terms of Arc winners. So is too much emphasis put on the stalls lottery? But a horse from the outside three stalls has won three times, too, again excluding Chantilly. That excludes the Chantilly 'combination Ted Rogers' (remember Dusty Bin?!) in 2017. Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe draw bias? First six home stall numbersĮleven horses have made the frame from the inside three stalls in the twelve Longchamp renewals sampled above. Note that in 20, the race was staged at Chantilly while Longchamp was being renovated. What about the draw in the Arc, of which much is usually made? Below are the stall positions of the first six home since 2008. We'll get to the form in a minute, but first a brief squint at recent history. ![]() With Baaeed now a confirmed non-runner, the market has begun to settle and a deep list of possibles, even without the top rated horse in Europe, is assembling. Part of this performance by females can be attributed to weight concessions: three-year-old fillies receive four pounds from three-year-old colts and seven pounds from older fillies and mares and they receive ten pounds from older colts. And fillies have a great record in the Arc, too: between 20, seven of the eight Arcs were won by fillies and, in the three renewals since, fillies have run second in two of them. In other words, it's a race that can be played at a price if that's your thing. Sottsass was 7/1, Waldgeist 13/1, Treve 11/1 in her second Arc, and before her, Solemia was 33/1, and Danedream 20/1. There are simply no poor winners of the race, though some are bigger prices hiding in plain sight. In 2020, Sottsass, a dual Group 1 winner including when claiming the 2019 French Derby, prevailed on his second Arc attempt he'd been third the year before having prepped with a win in the G2 Prix Niel: that brace of 2019 contests were his only other races at twelve furlongs.Īnd so it goes, back through Waldgeist, a triple G1 winner the brilliant queen, Enable, twice double G1 winner Found (who was also second in top grade a remarkable nine times before, and once after, her Arc win) Derby, Eclipse and Irish Champion victor, Golden Horn and twice prior to that the magnificent mare, Treve. Since his Arc glory day, TT has run second in both the G1 King George at Ascot and the Grosser Preis von Baden, missing by just a head in the latter. Run at Longchamp over a mile and a half (2400 metres if you prefer) the race invariably cements the reputation of a champion elect or elevates the status of a hitherto underrated contender.Ĭonsider last year, when Torquator Tasso was considered a shock winner by most measures, including the betting - he returned 72/1 on the French tote - but he had already been first or second in five Group 1 races! That quintet included a G1 score in the Grosser Preis von Baden on his prior start. ![]() The first Sunday in October is the traditional date for Europe's middle distance Championship race, the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. ![]()
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